Al Qaeda on the Move and Another Shift in the Frontier Wars

The New York Times reported today that there is increasing evidence that "dozens of fighters with Al Qaeda, and a small handful of the terrorist group’s leaders, are moving to Somalia and Yemen from their principal haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas."  This is no surprise as Somalia is already a legitimate front in the frontier wars confronting the United States and Yemen is not far behind.

This is not a surprise as the combined pressure of Coalition air strikes (with Predator Drones) and the counterinsurgency efforts of the Pakistani military in the Afghan-Pakistani northwest tribal regions has scattered al Qaeda and forced their Taliban allies to take the fight to the interior of Pakistan.  In addition, there is clear evidence of Pakistani tribal resistance to the tactics of the Taliban, which could result in a cleavage between al Qaeda and what has been its traditional support base in the region (similar to the Anbar Awakening in Iraq in 2007). 

This strategic shift is likely to make the situation worse in Somalia and increase the tensions already building in Yemen.  According to the Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff Michael Mullen, the exodus of al Qaeda from South Asia to the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa is a serious strategic issue. Mullen said that he is "very worried about growing safe havens in both Somalia and Yemen specifically.  Because we've seen Al-Qaeda leadership, some leaders start to flow to Yemen, and we've seen two organizations in Somalia who are affiliating more and more with Al-Qaeda."

It looks like the Frontier Wars continue to multiply.

Comments

[Tboz Sharony]

Al Queda has also move to Mexico as well under the name of El Queda or El Queso among the underground. Leading this new found sect Joaquin Vierra. As we know it he is the worlds first Iranian Mexican. He has crossed the border into the U.S. and opened a successful chain of bodegas which are assumed to fronts for terrorist activity. There also seems to be cultural shift among the Mexican community in border towns across the U.S. favoring hummus to beans and rice. These changes have been ignored by local officials but people feel that this could be the start of something big.