Escalation in Yemen - Developing a Frontline Against the Saudis?

Two significant events have occurred in the last couple of days that continue to point to the escalating strategic relevance of Yemen in both the US-jihadi conflict and the growing tensions in the Middle East.  First, an attack by suspected al Qaeda militants wearing explosive vests occurred at a Saudi border checkpoint yesterday.  Both militants were killed along with a Saudi police officer.  The attempted infiltration into the Saudi Kingdom clearly demonstrates that al Qaeda views Yemen as a strategic lynchpin in its global struggle.  According to the BBC,  

The Saudi Arabian government is concerned about the resurgence of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, where the authorities have been ineffective in cracking down on the group, focusing instead on fighting Shia rebels. Last month, the director of the US National Counter-terrorism Centre, Michael Leiter, told a Senate hearing that the group had gained a dangerous foothold across the border. "We have witnessed the re-emergence of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, with Yemen as a key battleground and potential regional base of operations from which al-Qaeda can plan attacks, train recruits and facilitate the movement of operatives," he said.

This is an escalating situation and yet further evidence of the growing complexities of the Frontier Wars in which the United States is currently engaged.

The second event of concern is the continuing civil struggle between the Yemeni government and al-Houthi rebels in the southern part of the country.  According to Stratfor, these rebels "have been receiving military supplies from Iranian ships via the harbor near Eritrea's port of Assab" and the Iranian ships routinely move and operate under the guise of Somali pirates.  The Iranian connection to the Yemeni secessionist conflict is nothing startling but it reveals the dangerous implications that are on the rise in Yemen.

Perhaps the broader strategic relevance given the current US-Iranian crisis is what role al Qaeda's and Iran's presence in Yemen might actually mean in the event of conflict between Iran and the United States.  One plausible scenario reveals Iran seeking to develop a front line line to use against the Saudis in the event that Israel or the United States targets Iranian nuclear facilities in a first-strike situation.  The presence of al Qaeda makes this scenario more complex and places Saudi Arabia firmly in the crosshairs of a potential escalation in violence should the US-Iran crisis escalate to war.

What these events reveal is that Yemen must be reconsidered in light of its escalating strategic relevance and the West, particularly the United States, ignores it at its own risk.