It certainly appears almost inevitable that the United States and Iran are going to soon become mired in some kind of direct conflict over the Iranian nuclear question. Despite the tentative agreement reached this week in Vienna to ship Iranian uranium abroad so that it can be enriched for civilian fuel use, Iran is no closer to giving up its nuclear ambitions than it was the week before. (For an interesting take on why Iran should not give up its nuclear program, take a look at Tom P.M. Barnett's latest book, Great Powers: America and the World After Bush.) In actuality, Iran would be making a very poor foreign policy choice to abandon its nuclear ambitions at this point, considering the example that North Korea has set in their ability to bring the United States to the negotiating table repetitively, earning concessions from them and leveraging China as a legitimate great power to repel what might otherwise be overwhelming American attention. The Iranians have obviously learned from this example, as their leveraging of Russian influence is very similar to what the North Koreans have done. Regardless, Iran is clearly in the crosshairs of the United States and this is not likely to change no matter how much uranium is processed outside of the Islamic Republic. So, from that viewpoint, a discussion of when Iran and the United States confront one another is academic in comparison to painting a brushstroke across the potential winners and losers from such a conflict.
Like it or not, there are many powers in the world that would welcome conflict between the United States and Iran, no matter in what form it emerges and stand to gain in some capacity. These include regional states, other great powers and non-state actors that all stand to gain from the United States becoming more entrenched militarily in the greater Middle East. The following is a brief overview of these actors:
Israel - Without question, Israel is preparing to launch a military attack against Iran, something that it has increasingly (and publicly) tied to its very survival as a nation. They started joint military exercises with the United States on Wednesday, called Juniper Cobra; these maneuvers were originally postponed in what appeared to be a move to align them with the talks in Vienna. The media in Tel Aviv reported that Israel viewed these exercises as legitimate preparation "for a nuclear Iran." Israel views a potential US-Iranian conflict as an opportunity to deliver a strategic deathblow to Iran and, in the process, to eradicate the Hezbollah threat from is northern border. This is a matter of regime survival for the Israelis, especially given the increasing interaction and interdependency between Hezbollah and Hamas. At this point, Israel is waiting to get unleashed and any escalation between the United States and Iran brings them closer to this chance.
China- China is already on its way to becoming the dominant superpower of the mid-21st century. To accomplish this, Beijing must find a way to provide increased amounts of energy to its exploding population and growing economy. With the attention of the United States firmly focused on Iran, the Chinese will have a much freer hand in developing foreign energy assets across the globe. This push is even beginning to creep into the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, China stands to gain crucial strategic leverage in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean as US naval assets will be redirected in support of any conflict in the Persian Gulf. This is perhaps the most important opportunity for the Chinese, as its first step to superpower status will be to become the dominant naval force in its own region and that can only begin with a pullback of the United States.
Russia - Russia is in a more complex position with regards to potential conflict between Iran and the United States. There are many in Russia who have expressed satisfaction with the military overreach of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan and compare it to the period before the collapse of the Soviet Union. In this sense, any action taken in Iran would push the American system closer to the point of collapse. At the same time, Russian pragmatists have to be sincerely concerned about the encroachment of US forces in Central Asia and the greater Middle East. As Russia attempts to reassert itself as an international power player, something made much easier with the Americans bogged down in two regional wars, the last thing they want to see is an additional build-up of US forces on its southern tier. Yet, this may be the final lever in Russia's ability to reassert its Soviet-era influence in its near abroad. Most importantly, any American rhetoric toward Russia would be hyperbole as there would be no way the United States would be able to up the pressure on Moscow while currently engaged in fighting three wars.
al Qaeda- What is lost in the buildup to any US-Iranian conflict is its potential impact on the existing US-jihadi war that is being fought all across the globe. Any military action against the Iranians is going to free up al Qaeda's maneuverability in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, northern Africa, South Asia and even South America. This means simply that al Qaeda will continue to increase its penetration and presence all over the globe. While al Qaeda no longer poses the strategic threat that it once did to the United States, it remains a tactical threat in its ability to share its expertise in areas such as bomb making and clandestine operations as well as its strong connections to Middle Eastern money flows.
Central/South American Drug Cartels - There is increasing evidence surfacing regarding the flow of illegal drugs out of Central and South America to the African west coast, where it can be more easily imported into the European market. This flow is only going to increase with American forces engaged in Iran. The reasoning is simple - the United States will need time to mount any kind of land invasion of Iran and will have to utilize its vast naval resources in support of an initial aerial campaign. As a result, there is likely to be an increased freedom of action on the open oceans in the event of any future conflict in the Persian Gulf. As Central and South American drug cartels seek new markets and global diversification, an America distracted by conflict in Iran will provide them with a near perfect window of opportunity to expand operations. This increased movement and global presence will also continue to strengthen the growing ties between transnational criminal networks, terrorist organizations, drug cartels and international organized crime. The last thing the United States needs to confront is yet another front in the Frontier Wars, this time in West Africa, fueled by the growing powers of global drug syndicates.
Iran - While Iran stands to lose quite a bit in any potential conflict with the United States, there are a number of things that it stands to gain as a result. First, it can claim victory even in a strategic defeat. This is a crucial point. All Iran will need to do is not lose in order to win the struggle against the United States, much in the same way that its proxy, Hezbollah, did in its 2006 war with Israel. Considering the multitude of actors that stand to gain from any US-Iranian conflict, it is not likely that Iran will suffer a total defeat; after all, this has not happened in Iraq or Afghanistan and it does not appear that American leadership has the will for this type of outcome in the modern era nor does it appear that the international community will allow it to happen. Second, in a conflict with the United States, Iran would stand to regain its position at the head of the worldwide Islamic revolution, a position it began to lose in the 1990's and totally forfeited on September 11th, 2001 with the al Qaeda attacks on the United States. This position is crucial as Iran's acute foreign policy goals are not to win a war against the United States but rather to become the dominant power in the greater Middle East. This starts with the regime regaining its position at the head of the Islamic revolution. Third, Iran would like receive the support of an international community who would be fed up with American aggression, providing them with crucial material support during any conflict. Fourth, Iran will have the ability to disrupt the global oil trade by creating such havoc in the Persian Gulf that it could cause a spike in prices that could create more strength for removing the US dollar as the reserve currency of the global market and replacing it with a basket of currencies. Last, and perhaps most important, Iran might somehow be able to claim a strategic victory against the United States, repel any Israeli aggression and somehow position itself to rise to become a much more significant global player.
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